ارزیابی ریسک عملکرد زیست‌توده گیاه ذرت تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشگاه تهران؛ پردیس کرج

2 استاد گروه آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشگاه تهران، پردیس کرج؛

3 استادیار گروه آبیاری و زهکشی دانشگاه تهران، پردیس ابوریحان؛

4 معاون دفتر ملی تغییر آب و هوا، سازمان محیط زیست

چکیده

این مطالعه به تحلیل ریسک عملکرد زیست‌توده گیاه ذرت در دوره 2039-2010 میلادی در مزرعه­ای واقع در پاکدشت تحت تأثیر عدم قطعیت‌ ناشی از مدل‌های جفت شده جوی- اقیانوسی (AOGCM) پرداخته ­است. به ‌این منظور سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم حاصل از 9 مدل AOGCM-AR4 تحت سناریوی انتشار A2 در دو دوره 2000-1971 و 2039-2010 برای منطقه مورد مطالعه محاسبه و با برازش تابع بتا وزن‌دهی شدند. در ادامه با استفاده از روش مونت کارلو، 2000 نمونه از هر سناریو اقلیمی دما و بارش ماهانه منطقه تولید و مقادیر تغییرات دما و بارش مربوط به سطوح ریسک 25، 50 و 75 درصد استخراج شدند. مدل آماری LARS-WG برای ریزمقیاس‌نمایی داده‌ها در سطح مزرعه بکار برده شد. در مرحله آخر با معرفی مقادیر دما و بارش منطقه در سه سطح ریسک 25، 50 و 75 درصد در دوره 2039-2010 به مدل AquaCrop، مقادیر زیست‌توده ذرت در دوره 2039-2010 شبیه‌سازی شدند. نتایج نشان­دهنده روند نزولی زیست‌توده، در تیمارهای آبیاری کامل و کم‌آبیاری بود، بطوریکه در سطح ریسک 50 درصد، 1/21 و 1/42 تن بر هکتار کاهش در زیست‌توده به ترتیب در تیمارهای آبیاری کامل و کم‌آبیاری، پیش‌بینی شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Analysis of Maize Biomass under Climate Change Impacts(Case tudy: Pakdasht)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Roostai 1
  • Teymour Sohrabi 2
  • Alireza Mesah 3
  • Mohammadsadegh Ahadi 4
1 MSc student, Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Dept., University of Tehran
2 Professor of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Dept., University of Tehran
3 Assistant Professor of Irrigation Engineering Dept., College of Abureihan, University of Tehran
4 Project Assistant for Climate Change Enabling Activity (UNDP-GEF), Department of Environment, National Climate Change Office
چکیده [English]

A variety of factors contributing to food insecurity should be evaluated precisely. Among these factors, climate change has the major influence. This study evaluates risk analysis of maize biomass under climate change in the period of 2010-2039, in a maize field in Pakdasht (east of Tehran, Iran) using AOGCM uncertainties. Climate Change scenarios were derived from 9 climate experiments (9 AOGCMs under A2 emission scenario) for two time periods (1971-2000 and 2010-2039). Beta probability density function (pdf) was fitted to these scenarios and 2000 samples of temperature and rainfall of climate change scenarios were produced. Also, their cumulative distribution functions (cdf) were depicted and changes of temperature and rainfall at 25%, 50%, and 75% risk levels were extracted. LARS-WG model was used for statistical downscaling of data and AquaCrop model was employed in simulation of maize biomass for future period (2010-2039).Descending trend was detected from biomass simulation in future period. At 50 % risk level, decreasing biomass was 1.21 ton per hectare in full irrigation treatment and 1.42 ton per hectare in deficit irrigation treatment. Risk analysis results showed that difference between 25% and 75% risk’s biomass amount in full and deficit irrigation were 0.7 and 0.5 ton per hectare, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • AOGCM uncertainties
  • LARS-WG model
  • AquaCrop
  • Simulation of biomassi

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پژوهش آب در کشاورزی
دوره 26، شماره 4
بهمن 1391
صفحه 425-438

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