Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Wheat Grain Yield and Biomass Under Two Levels of Salinity and Drought Stress

Hajiabadi, Fatemeh; Hassanpour, Farzad; Yaghoobzadeh, Mostafa; Hammami, Hossein

doi:10.22092/jwra.2025.368392.1069

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Wheat Grain Yield and Biomass Under Two Levels of Salinity and Drought Stress

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ Ph. D. Graduate of Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Water Engineering, College of Water and Soil, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran. And Educational Expert of Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.

² Associate Prof., Department of Water Engineering, College of Water and Soil, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.

³ Associate Prof., Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran, Department of Research Group of Drought and Climate Change, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.

⁴ Associate Prof., Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.

10.22092/jwra.2025.368392.1069

Abstract

The use of crop models to estimate plant yield and determine optimal irrigation schedules is an effective strategy for sustainable agricultural water resource management. This study investigates the impact of climate change on wheat grain yield and biomass under two levels of salinity stress (1.6 and 6.0 dS/m) and five levels of water (rainfed, 50, 75, 100 and 125% of water requirement) in Birjand region. The AquaCrop model was employed to simulate crop performance during a historical baseline period (1975–2004) and a future period (2025–2054). To project future climate variables, including precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures, five General Circulation Models (GCMs), namely, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM, CSIRO-MK3.6, HADGEM2-ES, and GFDL-ESM2M were used under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Based on a weighting method and performance metrics, the CSIRO-MK3.6 model was selected as the most suitable model for the region. The results indicated a projected decrease in precipitation and an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures in the future period under both emission scenarios. Wheat grain yield simulation was zero under rainfed conditions in either period. The highest yields were observed under irrigation treatments supplying 100% and 125% of the crop’s water requirements. For the RCP4.5 scenario, yields were 3.834 and 4.032 t/ha, respectively, and for RCP8.5, 3.822 and 4.170 t/ha. Finally, the grain yield reduction values were compared with the SMDI drought index, and the results showed that the greatest impact of drought was observed at high salinity and water stress levels.

Keywords

References

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