mokhtar Salehi Tabas; Mostafa Yaghoubzadeh; Reza Hashemi; Hamed Mansori; Saeed ghavamsaeedi
Abstract
Moisture content of surface soil is an important variable in nature's water cycle, which plays an important role in the global equilibrium of water and energy due to its impact on hydrological, ecological, and meteorological processes. Soil moisture is a determining factor in many complex environmental ...
Read More
Moisture content of surface soil is an important variable in nature's water cycle, which plays an important role in the global equilibrium of water and energy due to its impact on hydrological, ecological, and meteorological processes. Soil moisture is a determining factor in many complex environmental processes and plays a determinative role in the occurrence of agricultural drought. In this study, based on estimated soil moisture data by SWAP model and data of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, agricultural drought was determined by the use of soil moisture deficit index for the future period. The climatic data was estimated using six GCM models and two RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, and downscaled by LARS-WG model, and was entered into the SWAP model. Finally, by using soil moisture data of 30 cm depth, agricultural drought was evaluated using SMDI index. The results of climate parameter changes showed that the minimum and maximum temperatures and rainfall in the future period would increase compared to the base period and RCP8.5 scenario estimated higher temperatures and less rainfall than RCP4.5 scenario. Results of estimated SMDI values for the future period showed that RCP4.5 scenario has a higher average of SMDI amount than RCP8.5 scenario. Also, both scenarios show the normal moisture amount for future period and the predicted SMDI amount for the future period is higher than the base period.
Akbar Alipoor; Kamran Davari; Mohammad Mousavi Baygi; Mahmoud Sabuhi; Aziz Izady
Abstract
Groundwater is the largest source of freshwater available on Earth, which has been threatened with extinction in many countries due to overdraft. Determining the optimal cropping pattern along with a reduction in water resources allocation that does not lead to a reduction in farmers' income can be an ...
Read More
Groundwater is the largest source of freshwater available on Earth, which has been threatened with extinction in many countries due to overdraft. Determining the optimal cropping pattern along with a reduction in water resources allocation that does not lead to a reduction in farmers' income can be an appropriate strategy for groundwater sustainability. In the present study, a method has been proposed that, in addition to the sustainability of groundwater, minimizes farmers' loss of income. For this purpose, four groundwater use scenarios were first defined and groundwater level changes were calculated for each scenario using Neyshabur Decision Support System model. Also, economic productivity of water was estimated using a questionnaire for 242 agricultural wells and 9 dominant plants in Neyshabur plain, in 2016. To minimize farmers' income reduction, water was reallocated to different crops and the areas of cultivation were determined based on the ratio of economic productivity percentages of each crop. Due to changes in groundwater level and existing conditions, the scenario in which groundwater use was set equal to renewable water (414.9 M.m3) was selected as the best scenario. Implementation of this scenario would reduce the allocation of 227.5 M.m3 for groundwater sustainability. The results showed that the reduction of water allocation would result in a decrease of 27061 hectares of cultivated land area and a decrease of about 83.5 billion Tooman (local currency) in revenue. In order to compensate for the decrease in income, alternative crops of pistachio and saffron were suggested due to their higher economic efficiency and lower water consumption. In the proposed pattern, 18,000 hectares of saffron or 4473 hectares of pistachio replace the current crops that have the highest percentage of cultivated land in summer vegetables and sugar beet.
m y; Mohsen Ahmadee; s b; a h
Abstract
Climate change has important impacts on most of the natural processes, including hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration, as a part of hydrological cycle, will also undergo these changes. Due to the importance of evapotranspiration in water resources and agricultural management, this research was ...
Read More
Climate change has important impacts on most of the natural processes, including hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration, as a part of hydrological cycle, will also undergo these changes. Due to the importance of evapotranspiration in water resources and agricultural management, this research was conducted to study climate change effect on evapotranspiration in Neyshabour plain. Evapotranspiration was calculated for five farms in Neyshabour plain using SWAP software and meteorological and agronomic data. In irrigated farms, the HADCM3, ECHAM5OM and CGCM3T47models were used to calculate crop actual evapotranspiration for 2020-2039 and 2080-2099 periods based on A2, B1 and A1B scenarios and the climate model used in rainfed farms was the HADCM3 based on A2 and B1 scenarios. The greatest calculated difference in evapotranspiration was found between the period 2080-2099 and base period (1992-2011) in the A2 scenario. Also, evapotranspiration values for the period 2080-2099 will increase compared to the period 2020-2039 in all three scenarios. Among the crops of investigate, wheat will have the greatest changes (12%) in evapotranspiration in the future periods compared to the base period, while changes of maize will be only 3%. However, the average daily evapotranspiration of maize during the growing season (about 12 mm/day) will be more than the other crops.